Future scenarios of fish supply and demand for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: An analysis with the AsiaFish model

Bangladesh has made significant progress in social and economic development recent years, but micronutrient deficiencies poor dietary diversity remain a challenge. This paper developed five scenarios to explore futures of fish supply-demand using the AsiaFish model, with special emphasis on role macronutrient supply address nation's malnutrition nutrition security challenges. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario followed historical trends for exogenous variables used model. The four alternative explored: implications increase productivity farmed tilapia, pangasius rohu carp (AS1); improvements quality feeds (AS2); disease outbreak shrimps prawns (AS3); climate change impacts (AS4). BAU indicates that aquaculture growth will be prominent contribution increasing total demand exports 2040. Apart from are favourable sector development, other highlighted lower rate capture fisheries compared BAU, resulting declining per capita consumption, nutrient as consequence. Increased availability can slightly compensate term their diversity, particularly consumers. Policies towards sustaining nutrition-sensitive approach is recommended both essential healthy nutritious diets Bangladesh.